Thought I would do my usual blog about the upcoming trip and a look ahead to the 2019 Season. We fly out on Thursday and the weather looks showery around the DFW Area after 3 or 4 days of Strong storms and severe risks the biggest of those probably today (30th April) Thereafter with the setting up process on Fri 3rd and Sat 4th the weather looks set fair with no severe weather looking likely.
Our first official chase day is on Sunday 5th May and again this day looks very quiet whilst we await some 500mb energy to eject from the Low that has been spinning off the coast of the Baja Peninsular and California. The first real risk day looks like being Monday 6th May and across the Southern High Plains and SE Colorado. Mid 50’s Dewpoints and near to the right exit of a 50knt Jet Streak could provide some pretty storms to break in the newbies.
Tuesday 7th May as it stands looks like a very nice Chase Day across the Panhandles and SW Kansas, a real dryline day with plentiful Cape and Moisture and a Surface LP in SE Colorado, this is one to watch because it has been showing up on all runs for around 4 days now and GFS in this 7-10 day range can be very good from previous years experience.
Wednesday 8th also looks like a chase day and 10 days is only really the furthest I will go ahead at this range, so a pretty active start to Tour 1 for 2019 and signs across most sites I have seen show an active May Pattern ahead with little to only transient ridges and troughing being the main player and with abundant moisture this year due to a very wet winter thanks to El Nino drought conditions look to be at a minumum this season.